ARLA/CLUSTER: O próximo Ciclo Solar pode ser 50% abaixo do normal

[João Costa > CT1FBF]

Next sunspot cycle may be 50% lower

NASA report research now underway may have found a reliable new method to
predict this solar activity

The Sun's activity rises and falls in an 11-year cycle. The forecast for
the next solar cycle says it will be the weakest of the last 200 years.
The maximum of this next cycle – measured in terms of sunspot number, a
standard measure of solar activity level – could be 30 to 50% lower than
the most recent one. The results show that the next cycle will start in
2020 and reach its maximum in 2025.

The new research was led by *Irina Kitiashvili*, a researcher with the Bay
Area Environmental Research Institute at NASA’s Ames Research Center, in
California’s Silicon Valley. It combined observations from two NASA space
missions – the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory and the Solar Dynamics
Observatory – with data collected since 1976 from the ground-based National
Solar Observatory.

Kitiashvili’s method differs from other prediction tools in terms of the
raw material for its forecast. Previously, researchers used the number of
sunspots to represent indirectly the activity of the solar magnetic field.
The new approach takes advantage of direct observations of magnetic fields
emerging on the surface of the Sun – data which has only existed for the
last four solar cycles.

Read the full story at
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/ames/solar-activity-forecast-for-next-decade-favorable-for-exploration
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