ARLA/CLUSTER: condições solares
Carlos Mourato
radiofarol gmail.com
Quinta-Feira, 20 de Março de 2008 - 11:17:41 WET
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Carlos Mourato <radiofarol gmail.com>
Date: 20/03/2008 11:16
Subject: condições solares
To: radiofarol gmail.com
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Magnetism - The Key <http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/the_key.shtml>
SOLAR STRUCTURE
The Interior <http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/interior.shtml>
The Photosphere <http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/surface.shtml>
The Chromosphere <http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/chromos.shtml>
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SOLAR FEATURES
Photospheric Features <http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/feature1.shtml>
Chromospheric Features <http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/feature2.shtml>
Coronal Features <http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/feature3.shtml>
Solar Wind Features <http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/feature4.shtml>
THE SUN IN ACTION
The Sunspot Cycle <http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml>
Solar Flares <http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/flares.shtml>
Post Flare Loops <http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/loops.shtml>
Coronal Mass Ejections <http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/CMEs.shtml>
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RESEARCH AREAS
Flare Mechanisms <http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/flaremag.shtml>
3D Magnetic Fields <http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/3dfields.shtml>
The Solar Dynamo <http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/dynamo.shtml>
Solar Cycle Prediction <http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml>
Sunspot Database <http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/greenwch.shtml>
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GOES SXI Instrument <http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SXI.shtml>
Yohkoh <http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/Yohkoh.shtml>
CURRENT PROJECTS
MSFC Magnetograph <http://magnetograph.msfc.nasa.gov/>
The Hinode Mission <http://solarb.msfc.nasa.gov/>
The STEREO Mission
<http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/stereo/main/index.html>
The RHESSI Mission <http://hessi.ssl.berkeley.edu/>
The Ulysses Mission <http://helio.estec.esa.nl/ulysses/>
The GONG Project <http://gong.nso.edu/>
The SOHO Mission <http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/>
The TRACE Mission <http://vestige.lmsal.com/TRACE/>
The Sun in Time (EPO) <http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/suntime.htm>
FUTURE PROJECTS
The SDO Mission <http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/>
Solar Probe <http://solarprobe.gsfc.nasa.gov/>
Interstellar Probe <http://interstellar.jpl.nasa.gov/>
* Solar Cycle Prediction *
* (Updated 2008/03/11) *
[image: ssn_predict.gif (2208
bytes)]<http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict_l.gif>
*Click on image for larger version.*
Predicting the behavior of a sunspot cycle is fairly reliable once the
cycle is well underway (about 3 years after the minimum in sunspot number
occurs [see Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann *Solar Physics*; *151*, 177
(1994)]<http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/papers/hathadh/HathawayWilsonReichmann1994.pdf>).
Prior to that time the predictions are less reliable but nonetheless equally
as important. Planning for satellite orbits and space missions often require
knowledge of solar activity levels years in advance.
A number of techniques are used to predict the amplitude of a cycle during
the time near and before sunspot minimum. Relationships have been found
between the size of the next cycle maximum and the length of the previous
cycle, the level of activity at sunspot minimum, and the size of the
previous cycle.
Among the most reliable techniques are those that use the measurements of
changes in the Earth's magnetic field at, and before, sunspot minimum. These
changes in the Earth's magnetic field are known to be caused by solar storms
but the precise connections between them and future solar activity levels is
still uncertain.
Of these "geomagnetic precursor" techniques three stand out. The earliest
is from Ohl and Ohl [*Solar-Terrestrial Predictions Proceedings*, Vol. II.
258 (1979)] They found that the value of the geomagnetic *a* index at its
minimum was related to the sunspot number during the ensuing maximum. The
primary disadvantage of this technique is that the minimum in the
geomagnetic *aa* index often occurs slightly after sunspot minimum so the
prediction isn't available until the sunspot cycle has started.
An alternative method is due to Joan Feynman. She separates the geomagnetic
*aa* index into two components: one in phase with and proportional to the
sunspot number, the other component is then the remaining signal. She found
that this remaining signal faithfully represents the sunspot numbers several
years in advance. The maximum in this signal occurs at sunspot minimum and
is proportional to the sunspot number during the following maximum. This
method does allow for a prediction of the next sunspot maximum at the time
of sunspot minimum.
A third method is due to Richard Thompson [*Solar Physics* *148*, 383
(1993)]. He found a relationship between the number of days during a sunspot
cycle in which the geomagnetic field was "disturbed" and the amplitude of
the next sunspot maximum. His method has the advantage of giving a
prediction for the size of the next sunspot maximum well before sunspot
minimum.
We have employed these methods along with several others to determine the
size of the next sunspot cycle using a technique that weights the different
predictions by their reliability. [See Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann *J.
Geophys. Res.* *104*, 22,375
(1999)<http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/papers/hathadh/HathawayWilsonReichmann1999.pdf>]
This analysis indicated (by mid-1996) a maximum sunspot number of about 154
± 21. We then use the shape of the sunspot cycle as described by Hathaway,
Wilson, and Reichmann [*Solar Physics* *151*, 177 (1994)] and determine a
starting time for the cycle by fitting the data to produce a prediction of
the monthly sunspot numbers through the next cycle. We find a starting time
of July 1996 with minimum occuring in October 1996. The predicted numbers
are available in a text
file<http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict.txt>,
as a GIF image <http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict_l.gif>,
and as a Postscript
file<http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/ssn_predict.ps>.
As the cycle progresses, the prediction process switches over to giving more
weight to the fitting of the monthly values to the cycle shape function. At
this phase of cycle 23 we now give full weight to the curve-fitting
technique of Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann *Solar Physics* *151*, 177
(1994). The two parameters for this fit (cycle amplitude and cycle starting
time) have remained unchanged since early 1999.
*Note: These predictions are for "smoothed" International Sunspot Numbers.
The smoothing is usually over time periods of about a year or more so both
the daily and the monthly values for the International Sunspot Number should
fluctuate about our predicted numbers. Also note that the "Boulder" numbers
reported daily at www.spaceweather.com are typically about 35% higher than
the International sunspot number*.
Another indicator of the level of solar activity is the flux of radio
emission from the Sun at a wavelength of 10.7 cm (2.8 GHz frequency). This
flux has been measured daily since 1947. It is an important indicator of
solar activity because it tends to follow the changes in the solar
ultraviolet that influence the Earth's upper atmosphere and ionosphere. Many
models of the upper atmosphere use the 10.7 cm flux (F10.7) as input to
determine atmospheric densities and satellite drag. F10.7 has been shown to
follow the sunspot number quite closely and similar prediction techniques
can be used. Our predictions for F10.7 are available in a text
file<http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/f107_predict.txt>,
as a GIF image <http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/f107_predict.gif>,
and as a Postscript
file<http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/images/f107_predict.ps>.
Current values for F10.7 can be found at:
http://www.drao.nrc.ca/icarus/www/sol_home.shtml.
*Solar Cycle Predictions Web Links*
* Solar Influences Data Analysis Center <http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3> *
* Royal Greenwich Observatory/USAF/NOAA Sunspot Record
1874-2007<http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/greenwch.shtml>
*
* Solar Cycle 23 Panel: Summary of Panel
Findings<http://www.sec.noaa.gov/info/Cycle23.html>
*
* Solar Cycle 24 Panel: Summary of Panel
Findings<http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/index.html>
*
SPACE WEATHER
Current conditions *Solar wind*
speed: *551.2 *km/sec
density: *2.8 * protons/cm3
explanation <http://spaceweather.com/glossary/solarwinddata.html> | more
data <http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html>
Updated: Today at 1056 UT *X-ray Solar Flares*
6-hr max: * A0 * 1055 UT Mar20
24-hr: * A0 * 1055 UT Mar20
explanation <http://spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html> |
more data<http://www.sec.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5m.html>
Updated: Today at: 1055 UT Daily Sun: 20 Mar 08
<http://www.spaceweather.com/images2008/20mar08/midi512_blank.gif?PHPSESSID=aio6tvvvchaq53lq75epjje575>
The
sun is blank--no sunspots. Credit: SOHO/MDI *Sunspot number: 0 *
What is the sunspot number?
<http://spaceweather.com/glossary/sunspotnumber.html>Updated 19 Mar 2008
<http://spaceweather.com/glossary/sunspotnumber.html> Far side of the
Sun: <http://www.spaceweather.com/images2008/17mar08/midi_farside_blank.gif?PHPSESSID=aio6tvvvchaq53lq75epjje575>
This
holographic image <http://spaceweather.com/glossary/farside.html> reveals no
sunspots on the far side of the sun. Image credit: SOHO/MDI *Planetary
K-index*
Now: *Kp= 1 * quiet
24-hr max: * Kp= 3 * quiet
explanation <http://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/kp.html> | more data
<http://www.sec.noaa.gov/rt_plots/kp_3d.html> Current Auroral Oval:
<http://www.sec.noaa.gov/pmap/gif/pmapN.gif>
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/POES
What is the auroral
oval?<http://www.northern-lights.no/english/what/oval.shtml>
*Interplanetary Mag. Field*
Btotal: *4.2 * nT
Bz: *1.9 * nT *south *
explanation <http://spaceweather.com/glossary/imf.html> | more
data<http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_24h.html>
Updated: Today at 1057 UT Coronal Holes:
<http://www.spaceweather.com/images2008/20mar08/coronalhole_soho_blank.gif?PHPSESSID=aio6tvvvchaq53lq75epjje575>
There
are no well-defined coronal holes on the Earth-facing side of the sun.
Credit:SOHO Extreme UV Telescope SPACE WEATHER
NOAA Forecasts
Updated at: 2008 Mar 19 2203 UTC FLARE
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
CLASS M
01 %
01 %
CLASS X
01 %
01 %
Geomagnetic Storms:
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth's magnetic field are
given for three activity levels:
active<http://spaceweather.com/glossary/geostorm.html>,
minor storm <http://spaceweather.com/glossary/geostorm.html>, severe
storm<http://spaceweather.com/glossary/geostorm.html> Updated
at: 2008 Mar 19 2203 UTC Mid-latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
05 %
05 %
MINOR
01 %
01 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %
High latitudes
0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
05 %
05 %
MINOR
01 %
01 %
SEVERE
01 %
01 %
--
Best 73 from:
regards from:
CT4RK
Carlos Mourato
Sines
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--
Best 73 from:
regards from:
CT4RK
Carlos Mourato
Sines
Antes de imprimir este e-mail, pense que estará a gastar papel e tinta.
Proteja o ambiente
-----------------------------------------------------------
Este e-mail destina-se a fornecer informações de utilidade para os
destinatarios referidos, e não poderá ser considerado SPAM.
Se não desejar receber mais informações deste emissor, responda a este mail
com -REMOVER- no campo "ASSUNTO", ou bloqueando o emissor deste mail, nas
suas configurações de privacidade.
Esta mensagem está de acordo com a legislação Europeia sobre o envio
de mensagens (Directiva 2000/31/CE do Parlamento Europeu; Relatório
A5-0270/2001 do Parlamento Europeu).
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