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<DIV>-----Mensagem Original----- </DIV>
<DIV>From: ARRL Web site </DIV>
<DIV>Sent: Friday, March 21, 2014 6:55 PM </DIV>
<DIV>To: ct2ixq@gmail.com </DIV>
<DIV>Subject: ARLP012 Propagation de K7RA </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP012</DIV>
<DIV>ARLP012 Propagation de K7RA</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>ZCZC AP12</DIV>
<DIV>QST de W1AW </DIV>
<DIV>Propagation Forecast Bulletin 12 ARLP012</DIV>
<DIV>From Tad Cook, K7RA</DIV>
<DIV>Seattle, WA March 21, 2014</DIV>
<DIV>To all radio amateurs </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>SB PROP ARL ARLP012</DIV>
<DIV>ARLP012 Propagation de K7RA</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Average daily sunspot numbers decreased from 138.7 to 129 on March</DIV>
<DIV>13-19, compared to the previous seven days. Average daily solar flux</DIV>
<DIV>went from 149.7 to 141.4.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>The latest 45 day forecast shows solar flux at 150 on March 21-22,</DIV>
<DIV>145 on March 23, 140 on March 24-26, then 135, 145 and 160 on March</DIV>
<DIV>27-29, 165 on March 30-31, 160 on April 1-2, 155 on April 3, 150 on</DIV>
<DIV>April 4-7, 145 on April 8-9, 140 on April 10-11, and 135 on April</DIV>
<DIV>12-16. This (135) represents a low for the short term, then the</DIV>
<DIV>forecast shows a rise to 165 on April 26-27.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Predicted planetary A index is 5 on March 21-22, 8 on March 23-24, 5</DIV>
<DIV>on March 25-29, 8 on March 30 through April 1, 5 on April 2-8, 10 on</DIV>
<DIV>April 9, 5 on April 10-12, 8 on April 13-14, 5 on April 15-25, and 8</DIV>
<DIV>on April 26-28, followed by 5 during the foreseeable future.</DIV>
<DIV>Predicted values out that far are likely to change over the next 30</DIV>
<DIV>days.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>The entire 45-day flux forecast took a big jump on March 17. On</DIV>
<DIV>March 16 the average solar flux for April was predicted to be 122.3.</DIV>
<DIV>On March 17 and every day since the average solar flux for April is</DIV>
<DIV>predicted to be 149.8, an increase of over 22 percent. Check the</DIV>
<DIV>recent history of these changes along with daily updates at</DIV>
<DIV>http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html . You will find</DIV>
<DIV>new daily updates usually between 2100-2300 UTC.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I noticed something odd with the geomagnetic data reported every</DIV>
<DIV>three hours at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/DGD.txt . When</DIV>
<DIV>I checked this link at 0831 UTC on March 20, the mid-latitude A</DIV>
<DIV>index for March 15-19 was 26, 11, 5, 10 and 11. But when I checked</DIV>
<DIV>the same link 24 hours later, the same values were 3, 1, 2, 5, and</DIV>
<DIV>2.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>What caught my attention on March 20 was the March 15 mid-latitude A</DIV>
<DIV>index of 26, while the same date showed a planetary A index of 4,</DIV>
<DIV>and college A index (in Alaska) at 2. This seemed odd, because</DIV>
<DIV>during periods of moderate or high geomagnetic activity, the</DIV>
<DIV>mid-latitude value measured in Virginia is the lowest, followed by</DIV>
<DIV>the planetary A index at a higher value, and the college A index as</DIV>
<DIV>the highest. This is because the college A index is measured near</DIV>
<DIV>Fairbanks, Alaska, where the polar region sees a concentration of</DIV>
<DIV>geomagnetic unrest during any disturbance.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>The planetary A index is calculated using data from observatories at</DIV>
<DIV>Sitka, Alaska (57.0576 degrees north latitude); Meanook, Alberta,</DIV>
<DIV>Canada (at 54.616 degrees north latitude); Ottawa, Canada;</DIV>
<DIV>Fredericksburg, Virginia; Hartland, UK; Wingst, Germany; Niemegk,</DIV>
<DIV>Germany; and Canberra, Australia. Note that the mid-latitude</DIV>
<DIV>Fredericksburg data is also a component of the planetary index.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>These magnetic observatories are often in little shacks out in</DIV>
<DIV>remote areas. See</DIV>
<DIV>http://geomag.usgs.gov/monitoring/observatories/sitka/#photos ,</DIV>
<DIV>http://geomag.nrcan.gc.ca/obs/mea-eng.php ,</DIV>
<DIV>http://www.intermagnet.org/imos/imos-list/imos-details-eng.php?iaga_code=AAE</DIV>
<DIV>,</DIV>
<DIV>http://www.intermagnet.org/imos/imos-list/imos-details-eng.php?iaga_code=ASC</DIV>
<DIV>,</DIV>
<DIV>http://www.intermagnet.org/imos/imos-list/imos-details-eng.php?iaga_code=AQU</DIV>
<DIV>, http://geomag.usgs.gov/monitoring/observatories/fresno/#photos and</DIV>
<DIV>http://www.intermagnet.org/imos/imos-list/imos-details-eng.php?iaga_code=KOU</DIV>
<DIV>and</DIV>
<DIV>http://www.intermagnet.org/imos/imos-list/imos-details-eng.php?iaga_code=KDU</DIV>
<DIV>.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>The daily geomagnetic A index for each day is calculated from the K</DIV>
<DIV>index, measured every three hours. See</DIV>
<DIV>http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/kp_3d.html for more info on the</DIV>
<DIV>planetary values.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>This week's geomagnetic forecast from OK1HH, who has been</DIV>
<DIV>distributing these predictions since 1978: The geomagnetic field</DIV>
<DIV>will be quiet to unsettled on March 21, quiet to active on March 22,</DIV>
<DIV>quiet to unsettled March 23, quiet March 24, quiet to active March</DIV>
<DIV>25, quiet to unsettled March 26-27, mostly quiet March 28, quiet</DIV>
<DIV>March 29, mostly quiet March 30, quiet to active March 31, mostly</DIV>
<DIV>quiet April 1, quiet for a whole week on April 2-8, mostly quite</DIV>
<DIV>April 9, active to disturbed April 10, quiet to unsettled April 11,</DIV>
<DIV>quiet April 12, mostly quiet April 13, quiet to active April 14, and</DIV>
<DIV>quiet again on April 15-16.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Hey, the first day of Spring was yesterday, March 20! With solar</DIV>
<DIV>radiation equally distributed between the northern and southern</DIV>
<DIV>hemispheres, we are in an ideal time for HF propagation. Not only</DIV>
<DIV>that, but we are at the peak of the current solar cycle. This is</DIV>
<DIV>about as good as it gets, at least for the next decade or so.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Several readers (thanks to M0VNG in Worcester, England, N1IN,</DIV>
<DIV>KA7RJO, and several others) sent in news reports on the monster</DIV>
<DIV>solar flare of July 2012, which was aimed squarely at our Earth's</DIV>
<DIV>orbital path. Fortunately, our planet would not be in position to</DIV>
<DIV>receive the disturbance for a week (or perhaps nine days earlier was</DIV>
<DIV>the disaster point, according to some sources) and we missed another</DIV>
<DIV>Carrington event, like the one in the 19th century which set</DIV>
<DIV>telegraph offices on fire. Read about it at</DIV>
<DIV>http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/03/19/ and</DIV>
<DIV>http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2014/140318/ncomms4481/full/ncomms4481.html</DIV>
<DIV>and</DIV>
<DIV>http://newscenter.berkeley.edu/2014/03/18/fierce-solar-magnetic-storm-barely-missed-earth-in-2012/</DIV>
<DIV>.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>I am not an alarmist, but if that solar blast had struck Earth in</DIV>
<DIV>the most geoeffective position in 2012, I am convinced that the</DIV>
<DIV>result would have been a major collapse of civilization worldwide,</DIV>
<DIV>just from effects on the power grid, let alone everything else. And</DIV>
<DIV>without power or internet access for an extended period, I would not</DIV>
<DIV>even be able to report it, and I don't know if I would even realize</DIV>
<DIV>what had happened.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Here is another article about the event, this time from National</DIV>
<DIV>Geographic: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/ .</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>A few days ago we had this interesting report and cautionary tale</DIV>
<DIV>from Peter Gambee, K6TTD of Sacramento, California. This is from his</DIV>
<DIV>March 17 email: "Before anybody spots this in your next report ... I</DIV>
<DIV>have a small correction to make.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>"My 'AD8J/YA (Afghanistan)' wasn't exactly what I thought it was.</DIV>
<DIV>One of the members of the NCDXC caught my reference to this QSO on</DIV>
<DIV>the club list serve and dropped me a line. It was really AD8J/YAN,</DIV>
<DIV>operating in the N.C. QSO Party.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>"The spotting networks were showing it as 'Afghanistan,' and that is</DIV>
<DIV>the way it came up in my logger. Thought that one was a little too</DIV>
<DIV>easy - I got him on first call, which should've been a tip-off. But</DIV>
<DIV>it did feel awesome right up to the point reality hit.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>"I still made my 100th confirmed on LoTW - earned DXCC - and a</DIV>
<DIV>snagged some entities that I thought would take years to get, all in</DIV>
<DIV>the span of about ten days. I can live with that and be happy."</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Earlier, he sent this email:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>"I thought I might be sticking my neck out a few months ago when I</DIV>
<DIV>predicted that I could get to DXCC before the end of Cycle 24.</DIV>
<DIV>Frankly, thought I was inviting the solar 'gods' to smite me. But,</DIV>
<DIV>just as the solar flux was beginning to trail off it happened: This</DIV>
<DIV>afternoon, my DXCC count on LoTW crested the 100 mark, and a new</DIV>
<DIV>check box popped up on my LoTW application page: 'Send Certificate.'</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>"Not to hold everybody in suspense, but I put a check mark in the</DIV>
<DIV>box and hit 'send' at about the speed of light.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>"The second peak of Cycle 24 has been VERY good to me. I went from</DIV>
<DIV>about 20 confirmed DXCC to well over 100 in the span of about six</DIV>
<DIV>months. The last few weeks included some huge (and for me, extremely</DIV>
<DIV>elusive) 'ATNO' QSOs, including VU2GSM (India), TA3X (Turkey), 4Z4DX</DIV>
<DIV>(Israel), AD8J/YA (Afghanistan), 9J2T (Zambia), 4S7FRG (Sri Lanka).</DIV>
<DIV>Most of these came within the last week, and only one, 4Z4DX,</DIV>
<DIV>counted toward my 100 confirmed LoTW QSOs (actually, his</DIV>
<DIV>confirmation was the one that just put me over the top.) The 9J2T</DIV>
<DIV>QSL is ordered and 'in the mail.'</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>"My logging software shows that I have 114 DXCC confirmed, and over</DIV>
<DIV>180 worked, so I have a pretty good pile of cards to get out. I hate</DIV>
<DIV>paperwork with a passion, but I REALLY want some of these cards and</DIV>
<DIV>wouldn't mind being on the path to DXCC Honor Roll so it's time to</DIV>
<DIV>get down to stuffing, sealing, stamping, sorting ... Why can't more</DIV>
<DIV>DX be on LoTW? After the luck I've had this cycle, I really can't</DIV>
<DIV>complain all that much.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>"What a blast!</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>"I do have some thanks to put out there ... To Sol, who seemed to</DIV>
<DIV>kick things up a notch just when most of the 'experts' were</DIV>
<DIV>predicting a Maunder Minimum; to VE3NEA, the author of 'CW Skimmer,'</DIV>
<DIV>whose genius software made the ugliest pileups extremely workable;</DIV>
<DIV>to the geniuses at Elecraft for designing one of the best receivers</DIV>
<DIV>on the market available to mere mortals; to the good people at ARRL</DIV>
<DIV>and LoTW, who made the process of getting confirmations for my first</DIV>
<DIV>100 DXCC an absolute breeze -- and last, but not least, to my loving</DIV>
<DIV>wife and children who have shown extreme patience in the face of my</DIV>
<DIV>growing obsession/mania ... Thank you!! I couldn't have done it</DIV>
<DIV>without you!</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>"Now, gotta run. I'm off to the Post Office."</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Regarding solar flares, we got this from George Hall, N2CG of Saddle</DIV>
<DIV>Brook, New Jersey:</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>"I remember the X15 Solar Flare of March 1989 like it happened</DIV>
<DIV>yesterday.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>"On Monday morning March 6 around 7 AM EST/1200 UTC I was monitoring</DIV>
<DIV>The BBC World Service on or near 10.120 MHz. This was back when we</DIV>
<DIV>shared the 30m band with a few shortwave broadcast stations in</DIV>
<DIV>addition to military and utility stations that we still share the</DIV>
<DIV>band with today.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>"The BBC came in every morning on 10.120 MHz like gang busters with</DIV>
<DIV>a solid S9+40 over signal. Around 7:15 AM I left the shack to have</DIV>
<DIV>breakfast and do some chores. When I returned to the shack around an</DIV>
<DIV>hour later I turned on my transceiver (it was still tuned to the BBC</DIV>
<DIV>station) and all I heard was noise. I then tuned around the band and</DIV>
<DIV>still heard nothing but inherent receiver noise. I changed bands and</DIV>
<DIV>antennas and attempted to monitor various frequencies that should</DIV>
<DIV>have been full of stations but all I found was no radio signals at</DIV>
<DIV>all! It sounded like I forgot to connect the antenna to the receiver</DIV>
<DIV>jack.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>"I called (on the telephone) Ralph W2GKG (now SK) a local ham friend</DIV>
<DIV>who had been a ham and professional radio and TV broadcast engineer</DIV>
<DIV>for over 40+ years to tell him of my HF dead bands experience. He</DIV>
<DIV>said he also experienced the same conditions at his station and said</DIV>
<DIV>we probably are experiencing HF Radio Blackout which is caused by a</DIV>
<DIV>major solar flair. Sure enough, that is exactly what it was and
a</DIV>
<DIV>few hours later the breaking news of the day being broadcast on</DIV>
<DIV>radio and TV was the major solar flare that occurred and how it</DIV>
<DIV>could negatively affect us on earth like power grid outages and</DIV>
<DIV>damaging satellites in space with excessive radiation.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>"Since 1989 we've had quite a few solar flares but none that created</DIV>
<DIV>such a severe and long lasting (If I remember correctly I did not</DIV>
<DIV>hear radio HF signals until late afternoon that day) HF Radio</DIV>
<DIV>Blackout conditions."</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Now instead of solar flares, some 10 meter reports.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>First from Dean Lewis, W9WGV of Palatine, Illinois.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>"As I'm sure you're hearing from everyone else, 10M propagation for</DIV>
<DIV>the Russian DX Contest last weekend was amazing.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>"Due to family obligations, I didn't have much air time, but beat my</DIV>
<DIV>previous best DX by 1,000 miles, working VK6AA on the northwest</DIV>
<DIV>coast of (Western) Australia: direct path 10,000 miles. He was</DIV>
<DIV>'running' fast, but heard me on the first call; no fills, no</DIV>
<DIV>repeats. His signal was down near the noise, and I'm sure mine was</DIV>
<DIV>no better. My station is the most 'modest' I've heard of: an IC-703</DIV>
<DIV>(10 watts max) into an end-fed 40 meter half-wave wire resonant on</DIV>
<DIV>10, 15, 20, and 40 meters, indoors along the upstairs ceiling (local</DIV>
<DIV>CC&Rs), running CW-only."</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>And from Jon Jones, N0JK of Lawrence, Kansas.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>"10 meters continued to have enhanced conditions to the Far East as</DIV>
<DIV>the equinox approached.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>"On March 19 UTC logged Charlie, VR2XMT, Faij, 9W6ZIM both on SSB</DIV>
<DIV>and HL2DC CW. Heard but no QSO with XZ1N.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>"On March 20 UTC BD4TS and JA9SJI on SSB. All from mobile station.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>"Very pleased to work VR2XMT. Back in November, 2001 I worked VR2XMT</DIV>
<DIV>from HC8N on 6 meters."</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,</DIV>
<DIV>email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL</DIV>
<DIV>Technical Information Service web page at</DIV>
<DIV>http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the</DIV>
<DIV>numbers used in this bulletin, see</DIV>
<DIV>http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past</DIV>
<DIV>propagation bulletins is at</DIV>
<DIV>http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good</DIV>
<DIV>information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve</DIV>
<DIV>overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL</DIV>
<DIV>bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Sunspot numbers for March 13 through 19 were 130, 121, 141, 139,</DIV>
<DIV>110, 125, and 137, with a mean of 129. 10.7 cm flux was 147.7,</DIV>
<DIV>143.8, 139, 135.6, 136.4, 138.3, and 149.2, with a mean of 141.4.</DIV>
<DIV>Estimated planetary A indices were 13, 5, 4, 3, 3, 6, and 5, with a</DIV>
<DIV>mean of 5.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 5, 3, 1, 2, 5,</DIV>
<DIV>and 2, with a mean of 3.6.</DIV>
<DIV>NNNN</DIV>
<DIV>/EX</DIV></DIV></DIV></BODY></HTML>