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<H1>Perfect Space Storm Could be Catastrophic on Earth, Study Concludes</H1>
<P>By <A href="http://www.livescience.com/php/contactus/author.php?r=rb"><FONT
color=#003399>Robert Roy Britt</FONT></A>, Editorial Director</P>
<P>
<DIV class=clearfix id=art_toolbar>
<DIV id=pk_com_rec style="TEXT-ALIGN: left"><A class=pk_recommend
href="javascript:novaapi.Recommend('ArticleKey:4964af3a25cfc')"><FONT
color=#003399></FONT></A></DIV></DIV><FONT face=Verdana size=3>A new study from
the National Academy of Sciences outlines grim possibilities on Earth for a
worst-case scenario solar storm.</FONT></P>
<P class=article><FONT face=Verdana size=3>Damage to power grids and other
communications systems could be catastrophic, the scientists conclude, with
effects leading to a potential loss of governmental control of the
situation.</FONT></P>
<P class=article><FONT face=Verdana size=3>The prediction is based in part on
</FONT><A
href="http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/mystery_monday_031027.html"><FONT
face=Verdana color=#003399 size=3>major solar storm in 1859</FONT></A><FONT
face=Verdana size=3> caused telegraph wires to short out in the United States
and Europe, igniting widespread fires. It was perhaps the worst in the past 200
years, according to the new study, and with the advent of modern power grids and
satellites, much more is at risk.</FONT></P>
<P class=article><FONT face=Verdana size=3>"A contemporary repetition of the
[1859] event would cause significantly more extensive (and possibly
catastrophic) social and economic disruptions," the researchers
conclude.</FONT></P>
<P class=article><STRONG><FONT face=Verdana size=3>'Command and control might be
lost'</FONT></STRONG></P>
<P class=article><FONT face=Verdana size=3>When the sun is in the active phase
of its 11-year cycle, it can unleash </FONT><A
href="http://www.space.com/php/multimedia/imagegallery/igviewer.php?imgid=145&gid=10&index=0"><FONT
face=Verdana color=#003399 size=3>powerful magnetic storms</FONT></A><FONT
face=Verdana size=3> that disable satellites, threaten astronaut safety, and
even disrupt communication systems on Earth. The worst storms can knock out
power grids by inducing currents that melt transformers.</FONT></P>
<P class=article><FONT face=Verdana size=3>Modern power grids are so
interconnected that a big space storm -- the type expected to occur about once a
century -- could </FONT><A
href="http://www.space.com/common/media/video/player.php?videoRef=sun_storm"><FONT
face=Verdana color=#003399 size=3>cause a cascade of failures</FONT></A><FONT
face=Verdana size=3> that would sweep across the United States, cutting power to
130 million people or more in this country alone, the new report
concludes.</FONT></P>
<P class=article><FONT face=Verdana size=3>Such widespread power outages, though
expected to be a rare possibility, would affect other vital systems.</FONT></P>
<P class=article><FONT face=Verdana size=3>"Impacts would be felt on
interdependent infrastructures with, for example, potable water distribution
affected within several hours; perishable foods and medications lost in 12-24
hours; immediate or eventual loss of heating/air conditioning, sewage disposal,
phone service, transportation, fuel resupply and so on," the report
states.</FONT></P>
<P class=article><FONT face=Verdana size=3>Outages could take months to fix, the
researchers say. Banks might close, and trade with other countries might
halt.</FONT></P>
<P class=article><FONT face=Verdana size=3>"Emergency services would be
strained, and command and control might be lost," write the researchers, led by
Daniel Baker, director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at
the University of Colorado in Boulder.</FONT></P>
<P class=article><FONT face=Verdana size=3>"Whether it is terrestrial
catastrophes or extreme space weather incidents, the results can be devastating
to modern societies that depend in a myriad of ways on advanced technological
systems," Baker said in a statement released with the report.</FONT></P>
<P class=article><STRONG><FONT face=Verdana size=3>Stormy
past</FONT></STRONG></P>
<P class=article><FONT face=Verdana size=3>Solar storms have had significant
effects in modern time:</FONT></P>
<DIV class=article>
<UL>
<LI><FONT face=Verdana size=3>In 1989, the sun unleashed a tempest that
knocked out power to all of Quebec, Canada. </FONT>
<LI><FONT face=Verdana size=3>A </FONT><A
href="http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/xtreme_flare_031105.html"><STRONG><FONT
face=Verdana color=#003399 size=3>remarkable 2003
rampage</FONT></STRONG></A><FONT face=Verdana size=3> included 10 major solar
flares over a two-week period, knocking out two Earth-orbiting satellites and
crippling an instrument aboard a Mars orbiter. </FONT></LI></UL></DIV>
<P><FONT face=Verdana size=3>"Obviously, the sun is Earth's life blood," said
Richard Fisher, director of the Heliophysics division at NASA. "To mitigate
possible public safety issues, it is vital that we better understand extreme
space weather events caused by the sun's activity."</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Verdana size=3>"Space weather can produce solar storm
electromagnetic fields that induce extreme currents in wires, disrupting power
lines, causing wide-spread blackouts and affecting communication cables that
support the Internet," the report states. "Severe space weather also produces
solar energetic particles and the dislocation of the Earth's radiation belts,
which can damage satellites used for commercial communications, global
positioning and weather forecasting."</FONT></P>
<P><STRONG><FONT face=Verdana size=3>Rush to prepare</FONT></STRONG></P>
<P><FONT face=Verdana size=3>The race is on for better forecasting abilities, as
the next peak in solar activity is </FONT><A
href="http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/081107-new-sunspots.html"><FONT
face=Verdana color=#003399 size=3>expected to come around 2012</FONT></A><FONT
face=Verdana size=3>. While the sun is in a lull now, activity can flare up at
any moment, and severe space weather -- how severe, nobody knows -- will ramp up
a year or two before the peak.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Verdana size=3>Some scientists expect the next peak to bring more
severe events than other recent peaks.</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Verdana size=3>"A catastrophic failure of commercial and
government infrastructure in space and on the ground can be mitigated through
raising public awareness, improving vulnerable infrastructure and developing
advanced forecasting capabilities," the report states. "Without preventive
actions or plans, the trend of increased dependency on modern space-weather
sensitive assets could make society more vulnerable in the future."</FONT></P>
<P><FONT face=Verdana size=3>The report was commissioned and funded by NASA.
Experts from around the world in industry, government and academia participated.
It was released this week.</FONT></P>
<UL>
<LI><A
href="http://www.space.com/php/multimedia/imagegallery/igviewer.php?imgid=145&gid=10&index=0"><STRONG><FONT
face=Verdana color=#003399 size=3>Gallery: Solar
Storms</FONT></STRONG></A><FONT face=Verdana size=3> </FONT>
<LI><A
href="http://www.space.com/common/media/video/player.php?videoRef=sun_storm"><STRONG><FONT
face=Verdana color=#003399 size=3>Video - Space Storm
Warning</FONT></STRONG></A><FONT face=Verdana size=3> </FONT>
<LI><A
href="http://www.livescience.com/strangenews/080508-bad-doomsday.html"><STRONG><FONT
face=Verdana color=#003399 size=3>World to End in 2012 (Check Back for
Updates)</FONT></STRONG></A><FONT face=Verdana size=3> <BR></FONT></LI></UL>
<DIV></FONT><FONT face=Verdana size=3>Fonte:
LiveScience</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>