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<p><br>SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP032<br>ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA<br><br>ZCZC AP32<br>QST de W1AW<br>Propagation Forecast Bulletin 32 ARLP032<br>From Tad Cook, K7RA<br>Seattle, WA August 3, 2007<br>To all radio amateurs<br><br>
SB PROP ARL ARLP032<br>ARLP032 Propagation de K7RA<br><br>Average daily sunspot numbers rose very little this week, less than<br>6 points to 7.3. There were no major geomagnetic upsets, only<br>slightly unsettled conditions on the first day of August.
<br><br>We saw eight straight days of no sunspots, then a spot or two over<br>four days, then no spots on the first two days of August. A week<br>from now, August 10, we may see the beginning of several days with a<br>few sunspots every day. Expect unsettled geomagnetic conditions
<br>centered on August 7 and again on August 10.<br><br>Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions August 3-5,<br>quiet to unsettled August 6, unsettled to active August 7, and back<br>to quiet August 8-9.<br>
<br>There were six and two meter reports this week. On Sunday, July 29<br>Dick Bingham, W7WKR, who lives in the very remote mountain village<br>of Stehekin, Washington (reached by boat) reports that he began<br>hearing six meter beacons around 1800z, and until 2300z he worked 22
<br>grids, including HR9BFS in EK66 (Honduras) as well as<br>WA/CA/ID/MT/CO/TX/UT. Dick is blocked by a high ridge running<br>northwest to southeast, with takeoff elevations in excess of 25<br>degrees, so he doesn't hear the northeastern United States and
<br>Canada.<br><br>WB4SLM reported interesting E-skip on 2 meters, and from EM82 he<br>worked EM14, EM15 and EM25, all around 2100z on Sunday. He lives in<br>Georgia, and during a 30 meter QSO with his father, W9JNH in Texas,
<br>around 2133-2135z he heard long delayed echoes on his CW signal.<br><br>Four days earlier on June 25, Roger Lapthorn, G3XBM reported his<br>best 6-meter DX ever when he worked K1TOL in Maine on CW. Roger was<br>running just a few watts into a vertical mounted on the side of his
<br>house. Roger says the distance was over 5000 kilometers.<br><br>With July over, we can spin some numbers and look for trends.<br><br>Monthly averages of daily sunspot numbers for April 2006 through<br>July 2007 were 55.2
, 39.6, 24.4, 22.6, 22.8, 25.2, 14.7, 31.5, 22.2,<br>28.2, 17.3, 9.8, 6.9, 19.8, 20.7 and 15.6. Monthly averages of<br>daily solar flux for the same period were 88.9, 80.9, 76.5, 75.8,<br>79, 77.8, 74.3, 86.3, 84.4, 83.5,
77.7, 72.2, 72.4, 74.4, 73.7 and<br>71.6.<br><br>Looking at 3-month smoothed sunspot numbers, now the July numbers we<br>can add to May and June to show the three-month average centered on<br>June. These numbers are based on data from the past 21 months,
<br>November 2005 through July 2007:<br><br>Dec 05 40.6<br>Jan 06 32.4<br>Feb 06 18.1<br>Mar 06 27.7<br>Apr 06 38.5<br>May 06 39.7<br>Jun 06 28.9<br>Jul 06 23.3<br>Aug 06 23.5<br>Sep 06 21.2<br>Oct 06 24.1<br>Nov 06 23.1<br>
Dec 06 27.3<br>Jan 07 22.7<br>Feb 07 18.5<br>Mar 07 11.2<br>Apr 07 12.2<br>May 07 15.8<br>Jun 07 18.7<br><br>These numbers are calculated like this: April 1 through June 30 is<br>91 days. Add all the daily sunspot numbers over those three months,
<br>then divide by 91, and the result is approximately 15.8, centered on<br>May, the middle month. Likewise, May 1 through July 31 has 92 days,<br>and the sum of daily sunspot numbers over that period divided by 92<br>is
18.7.<br><br>If the average of daily sunspot numbers for the 31 days of August<br>turns out to be more than 20 (meaning the sum of all the sunspot<br>numbers for the month exceeds 620), we should see the three-month<br>average centered on July rise above the June average. We will see
<br>that result in ARLP037, on September 7.<br><br>This 3-month moving average of sunspot numbers is turning out to be<br>a nice indicator of cycle trends, with the average smoothly<br>declining from December through March, and increasing since. We'll
<br>know some day, perhaps in a year or two, if the low number in March<br>is a good indicator of cycle minimum or not. Users of Scott Craig's<br>Solar Data Plotting Utility (available free from<br><<a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp" target="_blank">
http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp</a>><a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp" target="_blank">http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp</a>) <br>may have noticed that this
<br>cycle minimum so far doesn't look as long as the previous minimum<br>around 1995-1997. But of course, if we are at the minimum or just<br>passed it, then we are only looking at probably half of its eventual<br>length on the graph. I hope the upturn comes soon, and is dramatic.
<br><br>If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,<br>email the author at, <mailto:<a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="mailto:k7ra%40arrl.net" target="_blank">k7ra@arrl.net
</a>><a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="mailto:k7ra%40arrl.net" target="_blank">k7ra@arrl.net</a> .<br><br>For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL<br>Technical Information Service at
<br><<a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html" target="_blank">http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html</a>><a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html." target="_blank">
http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html.</a> <br>For a detailed<br>explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see<br><<a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html" target="_blank">
http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html</a>><a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html" target="_blank">http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html</a>
<br>. An archive of past<br>propagation bulletins is at <br><<a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/" target="_blank">http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/</a>><a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/" target="_blank">
http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/.</a> Monthly<br>propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas<br>locations are at <br><<a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/" target="_blank">
http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/</a>><a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/" target="_blank">http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.</a><br><br>Sunspot numbers for July 26 through August 1 were 0, 0, 13, 14, 13,
<br>11 and 0 with a mean of 7.3. 10.7 cm flux was 68.4, 68.7, 69.9, 69,<br>68.9, 68, and 68.8, with a mean of 68.8. Estimated planetary A<br>indices were 9, 8, 4, 14, 10, 6 and 17 with a mean of 9.7.<br>Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 6, 3, 11, 10, 4 and 15,
<br>with a mean of 7.9.<br>NNNN<br>/EX<br><br></p></div><span style="COLOR: white" width="1">__._,_.___</span>
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